And the Oscar for the fastest 12 months yet goes to...
After bumper years for Irish talent at the Academy Awards, it's a decidedly low-key 2025 with the Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice, co-produced by the Dublin-based Tailored Films, left to fly the flag through its Best Actor (Sebastian Stan) and Supporting Actor (Jeremy Strong) nominations.
Watch: The Oscar nominations in six key categories.
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The Spanish-language musical Emilia Pérez, the story of a Mexican drug lord who transitions to a woman and starts a new life, leads the shortlist with 13 nominations, while The Brutalist, about a Holocaust survivor chasing the American dream, and The Wizard of Oz prequel Wicked have picked up 10 nods each.
Here's what we think will happen in the headline categories on Sunday:
Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
The Nominees - Adapted Screenplay:
A Complete Unknown - James Mangold, Jay Cocks
Conclave - Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez - Jacques Audiard in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John 'Divine G' Whitfield
The Nominees - Original Screenplay:
Anora - Sean Baker
The Brutalist - Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 - Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
The Substance - Coralie Fargeat
Predicted Winners: Conclave (Peter Straughan), Anora (Sean Baker)
Watch: Stanley Tucci, Ralph Fiennes, and Isabella Rossellini tell Laura Delaney about making Conclave.
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Conclave's Peter Straughan is so far out in front for his adaptation of the Robert Harris novel of the same name it's ridiculous. Yes, Nickel Boys director RaMell Ross won at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards for his adaptation of Colson Whitehead's Pulitzer winner, but Conclave and Straughan were ineligible under WGA rules. It's a different story, if you will, for Sunday night. As for Original Screenplay, Anora's director Sean Baker won at the WGA Awards, and writer-directors are loved by Oscar voters - witness Anatomy of a Fall's Justine Triet, Women Talking's Sarah Polley, Belfast's Kenneth Branagh, CODA's Sian Heder, The Father's Florian Zeller, Promising Young Woman's Emerald Fennell, Jojo Rabbit's Taika Watiti, BlacKkKlansman's Spike Lee, Moonlight's Barry Jenkins, and The Big Short's Adam McKay in screenplay categories in the past decade. If there is to be a Best Original Screenplay surprise, it'll be Jesse Eisenberg - another writer-director - for A Real Pain.
International Feature Film
The Nominees:
Brazil - I'm Still Here
Denmark - The Girl with the Needle
France - Emilia Pérez
Germany - The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Latvia - Flow
Predicted Winner: I'm Still Here
Watch: The trailer for I'm Still Here.
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Events, dear reader, events... For ages, it looked like Emilia Pérez had this category all sewn up, but then came the controversy over star Karla Sofía Gascón's old tweets - and I'm Still Here gained momentum and more and more admirers. With all the upheaval in the US, a 1970s-set true story that mixes the personal with the political has struck a chord at Oscars time. So has Fernanda Torres's performance as the mother and activist Eunice Paiva - a Best Actress-winning performance in another year. If you have time, try to watch I'm Still Here before Sunday.
Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Watch: Kieran Culkin discusses playing Benji in A Real Pain.
A done deal and then some. For his heart-warming and heart-breaking turn as life and soul of the party/lost boy Benji in A Real Pain, Kieran Culkin already has the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, Independent Spirit, BAFTA, and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) prizes on the mantelpiece with the SAG winner going on to win the Oscar on 21 occasions since 1995. The talk has been of no one but Culkin for months. The only surprise here will be what he ends up saying in his speech. It could well be the funniest of the night...
Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
Watch: Zoe Saldaña and Karla Sofía Gascón in a scene from Emilia Pérez.
No suspense here, either. Like Culkin in the above category, this one is all about Zoe Saldaña for her turn as gutsy lawyer Rita in the musical crime movie Emilia Pérez - and her performance of the song El Mal on the soundtrack. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and the Oscars have mirrored each other in this shakeup 22 times since 1995, and Saldaña has the SAG, the BAFTA, the Critics Choice, and Golden Globe gongs in the run-up to Sunday. A victory march for an actor whose best, you feel, could be yet to come.
Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Watch: Timothée Chalamet and Edward Norton in a clip from A Complete Unknown.
A roll of the dice here. After Cillian Murphy's coronation for Oppenhemier last year, things aren't so cut and dried in 2025. For months, Adrien Brody was the chosen one for his performance as architect Laszlo Toth in The Brutalist - but then Timothée Chalamet breezed in at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and won for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in the biopic A Complete Unknown. So, the times might be a-changin'... Since 1995, there have been 24 years where the Best Actor winner at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards also went on to win the Academy Award. Although the SAG Awards were held this year after Oscars voting had closed, Chalamet has a couple of other things in his favour for an upset. He's portraying a real-life person, which the Oscar voters love; he pulls off Dylan's songs superbly in the film, and Brody has won already for The Pianist in 2003. Indeed, if Chalamet wins, he will overtake Brody as the youngest man to win the Best Actor Oscar - another reason to think it could be his night as the drama goes all the way into the wee small hours.
Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison - Anora
Demi Moore - The Substance
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore - The Substance
Watch: Demi Moore in the trailer for The Substance.
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The most intensely competitive category this year - Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) could all have been in the mix - now looks like a straight 'shootout' between a rising star and a veteran, Mikey Madison and Demi Moore, respectively. In their searing portrayals of two characters trading on their looks to survive, both would be the worthiest of winners, but Moore has the edge in this category - again. Yes, Madison recently won the BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Award for her performance as the titular hero in the dark fairy tale Anora, but for her turn as the discarded TV favourite in body horror The Substance, Moore won the Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) last Sunday night to go with her Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins. The SAG winner and the Oscar winner have mirrored each other 21 times since 1995. And that's not all: Moore is a Hollywood legend making a big-screen comeback with the best work of her career to date and her acceptance speeches have been a highlight of this awards season, marrying her own story to that of The Substance. It feels like it's written in the stars that one of Tinseltown's biggest stars will have her biggest night this weekend.
Directing
The Nominees:
Anora - Sean Baker
The Brutalist - Brady Corbet
A Complete Unknown - James Mangold
Emilia Pérez - Jacques Audiard
The Substance - Coralie Fargeat
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist - Brady Corbet
Watch: Brady Corbet tells Harry Guerin about making The Brutalist.
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Another punt. For ages, all the talk was about The Brutalist director Brady Corbet winning, but then Anora's Sean Baker won at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards. Take this in: the winner of the DGA Award has been honoured with the Best Director Oscar on all but eight occasions since the 1940s - the last divergence was Sam Mendes (1917 - DGA) and Bong Joon Ho (Parasite - Oscar) in 2020. Strengthening Baker's case is Anora's win at the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards, the key Best Picture Oscar indicator, and he's also the favourite for Best Original Screenplay. But could this be a year when voters split the Best Director and Best Picture honours, Best Picture for Baker and Best Director for Corbet? Corbet recently won the BAFTA - suggesting strong support from European Oscar voters - and his work on The Brutalist, making an epic for under $10 million, feels too important to be overlooked. The signs point to Baker, but there could be a twist in the tale yet.
Best Picture
The Nominees:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Predicted Winner: Anora
Watch: Anora writer-director Sean Baker and star Mikey Madison discuss the dark fairytale with Alan Corr.
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Any film that wins at the Directors Guild of America (DGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA), and Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards is the red-hot favourite for the Best Picture Oscar. Anora has won at all three, and the Oscar winner for Best Picture has mirrored the PGA winner 25 times since 1990. But here's the twist: Conclave has just won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, so it's on the thesps' minds - and they're the largest voting bloc at the Academy Awards. Add to that the fact that Conclave recently won Best Picture at the BAFTAs - and hundreds of BAFTA voters are Oscar voters as well. Remember: this is the only Oscars category that's a one to ten preferential ballot, so if the number-one vote was split sufficiently between Anora and The Brutalist, and Conclave received the majority of number-two votes, it would get the gold. Anora is no doubt the favourite, but Parasite won Best Picture without either DGA or WGA wins in 2020. It all comes down to whether voters go for the film with broad appeal (Conclave) or the edgier one (Anora). There may well be some divine intervention at the end of the evening...
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